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2018 Cross Country Season Preview

Griffin Ott's XC Conversions for Invites, Conference and CIAC Meets

 Boys

Projections are based on 2017 XC and 2018 Track times, using last year’s state open scoring spread to project where certain times will fall in terms of points.  



Boys Projected State Open Order (Projected Points):

1 Xavier 42

2 Staples 77

3 Tolland 106

4 Hall 108

5 Danbury 150

6 Warde 178

 

Boys Depth Ratings*:

1 Staples 0.247

2 Tolland 0.302

3 Warde 0.371

4 Danbury 0.380

5 Hall 0.444

6 Xavier 0.523

 

*Depth rating is the proportion of projected points scored by the 5th runner.  Only the top 6 projected teams are included.

 

Notes:

 

Xavier has a historically strong pack of 4 runners, and if a #5 can step up for them during the season, they will be looking at a record-setting year.  The last school to score under 40 points at the state open was back in 1985, and it was Xavier with 26 points. In addition, their move down to class L may allow them to train through the class meets and be fresh for the Open


In a reversal of last year where Xavier’s depth outlasted Staples, Staples comes into the year with a remarkable projected 12 second spread.  If Xavier has a bad day, Staples could be in contention to steal the open title with their sturdy depth.  

 Girls

Girls Projected State Open Order (Projected Points):

1 Greenwich 64

2 Immaculate 74

3 Danbury 91

4 Hall 103

5 Pomperaug 116

6 Glastonbury 120

 

Girls Depth Ratings:

Greenwich 0.313

Danbury 0.407

Immaculate 0.432

Glastonbury 0.475

Pomperaug 0.491

Hall 0.621

 

Notes:

 

Hall has the worst depth rating of any of the projected top 6 teams, but as a school with consistent success in the recent past, it is entirely likely that a 5th runner will emerge out of the woodwork and bolster them to be a contender for the top 2 places, or even the state open title.  Look for this development throughout their regular season meets.


Glastonbury is projected as the 6th team at the Open, but they had perhaps the most success on the track relative to their past cross country season, giving them hope as a potential sleeper for the the state open podium.  Each of their top 5 runners ran a track time that equated to being better than their best 2017 cross country race. Look to see how this track success transitions to the cross country season.