2017 Conference Meet Previews
Below are projections for the top 3 teams and individuals for conference meets across CT, with a projected time (adjusted for the course that the meet is on), and projected point totals for the top 3 teams.
Joe Pearl (Manchester)- 16:19
Trey Cormier (Hall)-16:28
Heath Olivieri (EC)-16:34
Hall looks to be the clear favorite in the team race, projecting to put their top 5 in the top 15 spots in the race. Tolland's strength is in their depth, as they have just one runner in the top 10.
Jenna Zydanowicz (Hall)- 19:01
Kate Hedlund (Manchester)-19:52
Alexandra Ross (Glastonbury)- 19:57
EO Smith-97 pts
This meet looks to be lopsided for both the individual and team race. Zydanowicz of Hall is the clear favorite individually, though it will be a big pack of runners vying for 2nd place. Glastonbury is poised to run away with the meet with 2 runners in the top 5 and their entire top 5 in the top 20.
Ben Seiple (Staples)-15:45
Alex Mocarski (Warde)-15:50
Will Landowne (Staples)-15:55
Staples- 42 points
Danbury- 62 points
Individually, this is the most wide-open FCIAC boys race in years, as there is no clear favorite to take the win. The Staples duo of Ben Seiple and Will Landowne, Alex Mocarski, and Dan Nichols(Danbury) all look like they will have a legitimate shot to win the race. With their usual top competitor Danbury experiencing a down year, Staples looks to run away easily with the team title, though it will be a tight race for 2nd between Danbury and Warde, likely coming down to each team's 5th man, as both teams rely heavily on a strong top 2 or 3.
Morgan McCormick (Wilton)-14:10
Zoe Harris (Greenwich)-14:50
Hetty McMillan (Greenwich)-15:07
Danbury- 71 points
Not surprisingly, Morgan McCormick is the clear favorite to win this race, and we should expect to see a large gap between first and second place. Team-wise, Danbury is looking to have a historically strong finish, likely beating Ridgefield, who are having a rare down-year. Danbury is projected to have 5 all-FCIAC runners(top 30).
Eli Nahom (New Milford)-16:35
Connor McNerney (Immaculate)-17:12
Timothy Lautenbach (Weston)-17:20
Eli Nahom (NM) is the clear favorite in this race, yet New Milford as a team is having an uncharacteristic rebuilding year this year, so we will see new faces on the podium this year. It looks to be an incredibly tight race between Immaculate and Newtown. We have Immaculate projected to take a narrow 1 point victory, but it could really go either way. Pomperaug, a perennial postseason threat, can't be counted out of this race, and could surprise Immaculate and Newtown to take the team title.
Angela Saidman (Immaculate) -19:32
Ivy Walker (Immaculate) -19:44
Kate Wiser (Pomperaug) -20:02
New Milford-129 pts
The top SWC girls have remained quiet so far this year, choosing not to run many of the big invitationals, including Wickham. We will see who has progressed the most since early season races at this meet, and Saidman, Walker, and Wiser are all comfortably spread from each other in the top 3 spots, but there could be a lot of variation in this race, and all 3 of them, plus other runners such as Maddie Villa(Pomperaug), have a shot to win this race. Team-wise, this should clearly go Pomperaug's way as they are primed to put 4 in the top 7 of this race.
2017 CLASS MEET PROJECTIONS
Individual meet projections contain projected times and points for individuals/teams. The projected state open wild card teams are listed at the bottom of the page.
Class LL Boys
1. Drew Thompson (Fairfield Prep) 15:30
2. Ben Seiple (Staples) 15:52
3. Brendan Murray (Cheshire) 15:58
4. Will Landowne (Staples) 16:10
5. Christian Myers (Staples) 16:13
1. Xavier- 73 points
2. Staples- 76 points
3. Fairfield Warde- 97 points
4. Hall- 114 points
5- Newtown- 186 points
In one of the most loaded LL meets in recent history, Xavier and Staples look to be neck and neck. Xavier has the edge by 3 points, but Staples has a projected team ime of almost a minute faster, so if their 5 can move up some places, they will be tough to beat. Staples's front does not really have much potential for upward movement, as their top 3 are all projected to be in the top 5, whereas Xavier puts their entire top 5 in between Staples's 3 and 4. Warde surprised at FCIACs by only losing to Staples by 4 points, so they cannot be counted out either. Hall has been trending upwards since a lackluster race at Wickham, and should also be in the mix to win this race.
Class LL- Girls
1. Jenna Zydanowicz (Hall) 18:29
2. Kate Hedlund (Manchester) 19:11
3. Lauren Moore (Danbury) 19:35
4. Gabriella Vigginao (Ridgefield) 19:36
5. Rose Kitz (Hall) 19:41
1. Glastonbury- 58 points
2. Greenwich- 86 points
3. Danbury- 94 points
4. Hall- 114 points
5. Trumbull- 168 points
Glastonbury, Greenwich, Danbury, and Hall are each are projected to put their top 2 in the top 11 of the race, and all will be in contention to win the team race. Glastonbury appears to have a solid 30 point edge over Greenwich and Danbury, but it is far from being in the bag. Greenwich and Danbury, both well-coached teams, are likely to not have begun peaking yet and could surprise Glastonbury at this meet.
Class L- Boys
1. Eli Nahom (New Milford)- 16:16
2. Kyle Hotchkiss (Kennedy)-16:34
3. Robert Moore (Pomperaug)- 16:40
1. Pomperaug- 43 points
2. New Canaan- 120 points
Class L is an entirely different league with the departure of Hall to LL, as Pomperaug is the clear favorite to win this race. New Canaan looks to be the favorite for second place and a spot in the State Open as they are projected to narrowly edge out New Milford by 4 points. Individually, Eli Nahom looks poised to win, and if New Milford does not make the open they still could send 2 or 3 individuals.
Class L- Girls
1. Morgan McCormick(Wilton)-18:07
2. Kate Wiser (Pomperaug)- 18:31
3. Ashley Wargo (Pomperaug)- 19:41
1. Pomperaug- 28 points
2. EO Smith- 76 points
Pomperaug is set to easily win their class meet, projected to score an astounding 28 points. Behind them, EO Smith is comfortably in the 2nd spot at this meet but has no realistic chance of beating Pomperaug. Individually, it will be a fast race up front as McCormick and Wiser are projected to put a 70+ second gap on the 3rd place runner.
Class MM- Boys
1. Anthony Golino(New Fairfield)- 16:44
2. Jerold Lambert (New Fairfield)- 17:02
3. Samuel Whittaker (East Lyme)- 17:04
1. Brookfield- 74 points
2. Weston- 95 points
New Fairfield is projected to go 1-2 individually, but lacks the depth to be competitive as a team. Brookfield is projected to win, but Weston and East Lyme(99 points) are close behind and have a solid chance to upset Brookfield. None of these teams have a particularly small 1-5 gap, making the race very volatile.
Class MM- Girls
1. Bethany Ottowitz (Watertown)- 19:50
2. Abigail Potticary (RHAM)- 19:54
3. Brooke Almeida (RHAM)- 19:55
1. Avon- 39 points
2. RHAM- 60 points
The individual race looks to be a close one with 3 runners within 5 seconds of each other. Despite not having anyone in this pack of 3, Avon looks like the clear favorite for this race. RHAM is easily in the second spot, significantly ahead of the projected third place team. Avon's depth is their strength, but if RHAM's back end runners can step it up they may have a chance to come away with a MM championship.
Class M- Boys
1. Killian McNamee (Tolland) 16:30
2. Heath Olivieri (East Catholic) 16:34
3. Alec Sauter (Tolland) 16:56
1. Tolland- 41 points
2. Northwestern- 79 points
Tolland is the clear favorite in this meet, with 2 runners in the top 3 in the race. The battle for second place, and an automatic qualifier for the state open, will be more interesting. Northwestern is projected to have a slim 4 point margin over East Catholic. Northwestern's advantage lies in their 3-man pack(their 3, 4, and 5), that fit themselves between East Catholic's 3 and 4. If East Catholic's 4 and 5 move up closer to the Northwestern pack, they will put themselves in a position to beat Northwestern. The third place team in this race might have a chance to get a wild card time qualifier to the state open.
Class M- Girls
1. Kayla Cohen (New Fairfield) 19:31
2. Elizabeth Stockman (Rocky Hill) 19:37
3. Hazel Hudson (New Fairfield) 20:07
1. Nonnewaug- 93 points
2. Weston- 147 points
Nonnewaug, with their strong depth, is the favorite in this race. Weston is projected to be second, put Ellington is only about 15 points behind them, so it should be a tight race. Individually, Cohen and Stockman look to run away from the field and it will be a tight race to the finish for the individual title.
Class S- Boys
1. Ken Little (Derby) 16:20
2. Silas Olsen (Lyman Memorial) 17:07
3. Steve Stanley Jr (Derby) 17:14
1. Lyman Memorial- 98 points
2. Shepaug Valley- 167 points
Class S, being a league of small schools, features many teams that lack depth, which is where Lyman Memorial sets themselves apart. Their top 5 is projected to finish in the top 37, giving them a big edge over Shepaug Valley and other teams. Derby has a very strong 1-2, but lacks any depth so they are not poised to factor into the team race.
Class S- Girls
1. Angela Saidmna (Immaculate) 18:36
2. Taylor Mascetta (Immaculate) 19:38
3. Emily Sienna (Hale Ray) 19:46
1. Immaculate- 27 points
2. Derby- 94 points
Immaculate is the clear favorite in this race, poised to go 1-2 and score a very impressive 27 points. Derby is projected 2nd, edging out Shepaug Valley by 15 points. While Shepaug Valley has 2 runners in the top 10, they lack depth, whereas Derby has their top 5 in the top 23 runners in S, despite not having anyone in the top 15.
Class SS- Boys
1. Andrew Meredith (HK) 16:30
2. Taylor Ney (Coventry) 16:36
3. Corey Picard (Terryville) 16:39
1. Haddam-Killingworth- 45 points
2. Immaculate- 81 points
Class SS is surprisingly deep in the boys race, with 10 runners projected to go under 17:00. As usual, HK is poised to easily run away with the team title as Immaculate is projected for 81 points and a comfortable 2nd place finish. HK is projected to put their top 5 in the top 12 in the race, at which point Immaculate is only projected to have one runner finished.
Class SS- Girls
1. Kylie Raymond (Somers) 19:40
2. Kate Daley (Morgan) 19:52
3. Kathryn Shea (Northwest Catholic) 20:05
1. Haddam-Killingworth- 89 points
2. Old Saybrook- 104 points
HK and Old Saybrook are both very comfortably slotted for the 2 state open autoqualifiers, each of them more than 80 points ahead of the next best team. Old Saybrook is projected to get 3 runners in before HK's 2nd, but HK's 2-5 are projectd to beat Old Saybrook's 4. As is the case in many of these class meets, the deciding factor of the race lies in the movement of the back pack of each team. If Old Saybrook's back end can run PRs and move up, they will have a shot at beating HK.
Boys- Wild Card Spots
1. Fairfield Warde (LL)
2. Hall (LL)
3. Newtown (LL)
4. Fairfield Prep (LL)
5. Glastonbury (LL)
6. Danbury (LL)
7. Amity (LL)
8. Trumbull (LL)
All of the wild card spots are projected to go to LL teams, with the closest non-LL team being East Catholic, who are projected to miss the last wild card spots by a total of 18 seconds, so it is entirely possible that they wind up in one of the 8 spots. New Milford, a team who is much stronger on team time than points due to their lack of depth, is projected to miss the last wild card spot by one minute, or 12 seconds per runner.
Girls- Wild Card Spots
1. Hall (LL)
2. Danbury (LL)
3. Newtown (LL)
4. Fairfield Ludlowe (LL)
5. Trumbull (LL)
6. Wilton (L)
7. Guilford (L)
8. Ridgefield (LL)
Class L is projected to get 2 of the wild card spots, as the rest look like they will go to LL schools. The only fairly close non L or LL team to a wild card spot is Tolland, who are projected to be 2 minutes behind the 8th spot, 24 seconds per runner. They are not entirely out of it, but it will take an incredible race for them to secure a wild card berth to the state open.